Monday, April 05, 2004

Most improved

My friend Blake runs a little NCAA tournament contest (for bragggin' rights only). This year I'm in first place out of 58 entries, and I'll actually win the whole thing if UConn wins tonight. This is much better than my performance last year, when my picks were worse than a random coin flip. So in any case, I should get a "most improved" award.

Blake pointed out another interesting contest where you put in a probability of each team winning for each game, and points are computed according to a non-linear scoring function. I'm not sure where they got the scoring function (it's not a log). They make the dubious and unsupported claim that their function makes it optimal to select the "true" probabilities, a claim which is bound to rankle those with some knowledge of decision theory. But it still looks like a fun idea...maybe next year.

UPDATE: UConn won, and so did I! I even got pretty close on predicting the final score (I predicted 80-70, the final score was 82-73).


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